How QQQ Trades Around the Midterms

October 23, 2026 · 1 min read

The short version: in five of the last six midterm cycles, QQQ was higher three months after election day. The weak stretch tends to come before the vote, not after it.

QQQ data starts in March 1999, which gives us six complete midterm cycles (2002–2022). For each one we looked at the window from three months before to three months after election day. 2026 is still in progress.

By the numbers

Midterm	3 months before	3 months after	Biggest drop in window
2002	+19.8%	−6.1%	−22.7%
2006	+15.9%	+4.6%	−3.9%
2010	+12.2%	+9.3%	−7.7%
2014	+6.9%	+1.5%	−8.3%
2018	−6.6%	+1.2%	−22.8%
2022	−16.4%	+14.0%	−21.7%

Win rate: 5 of 6 cycles finished higher three months after the vote.
Average gain: about +4%. The median was about +3%.
Range: from −6.1% (2002) to +14.0% (2022).

All six cycles on one chart

QQQ indexed to 100 at the last close before each midterm election, 2002 to 2026 overlaid — Every cycle is reset to 100 at the last close before the vote (dashed line), so you can compare the paths directly. Most lines climb into election day from below and drift higher afterward. 2026 (thick grey) is indexed to the latest close, since the vote hasn't happened yet.

What stands out

Weakness before the vote often set up gains after it. In 2022 QQQ hit its low on Nov 3, just days before the election. In 2002 the low came about four weeks before. Both times QQQ was higher three months after the vote.
The one loss had a bigger story. 2002 is the only cycle that ended lower. That was the tail end of the dot-com bear market, so the election was hardly the main driver.
Drawdowns are common. Three of the six windows included a drop of more than 20%. The pattern has held on average, but the path has rarely been smooth.